Evaluating Climate-Related Migration Forecasting Models
Climate change will have significant impacts on all aspects of human society, including population movements. This report reviews a number of prevailing and promising modeling approaches for forecasting the nature, magnitude, and direction of climate-related migration over the next 30 years.
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This report reviews a number of prevailing and promising modeling approaches for forecasting the nature, magnitude, and direction of climate-related migration over the next 30 years. We pay particular attention to how well models are likely to forecast migration across geographic contexts, for different population groups (including women and marginalized groups), the degree to which models integrate other developmental or conflict-related drivers of migration, and whether models capture the potential for trapped populations. Our findings are based on a systematic literature review and benefit from the insight and expertise of eight climate migration experts and modelers.
